If you’re wondering how to hedge against the AI bubble, you’re not alone. We talked about options during a recent episode of our podcast. We walked through two headlines: a warning that an overheated AI market could trigger a Lehman-style collapse, and Visa’s new stablecoin platform.
Both stories point in the same direction. When the money you count on for retirement is all in one place, a single shock can impact all of it. So how do you protect yourself?
Here’s what we discussed, and what it means for you.
Key takeways
- The AI bubble could pull down far more of the market than tech stocks.
- Visa’s move into stablecoins could pressure the banks that hold your savings.
- Protect yourself by diversifying so one event doesn’t touch everything you own.
Why the AI bubble looks like a 2008 moment
We opened with a Business Insider piece on tech analyst Ed Zitron. Zitron calls OpenAI the “Lehman Brothers” of AI. He likens a burst to 2008, when Lehman’s collapse spread through the banking system by way of real estate.
His argument is that this could be worse, because so much of the AI economy depends on one company. Zitron’s point is that OpenAI’s spending commitments dwarf its actual revenue, which is why he treats its possible failure as a systemic risk.
We added the dot-com comparison. When a stock climbs that fast, people are buying for what it might do, not for what it earns today. That’s the setup for a bubble.
How much of the stock market depends on AI?
An AI downturn isn’t only an AI problem. The seven largest tech names now make up roughly 34% to 35% of the entire S&P 500, with a combined value above $20 trillion.
Many people keep a large share of their retirement savings in that same market. We also noted the market hasn’t seen a major crash since 2009 or 2010, and that big drops have tended to arrive every 10 to 12 years.
By that math, we’re already at the 15- or 16-year mark.
AI investment returns aren’t there yet
The companies chasing the AI boom aren’t seeing the results they expected. We’re reading more reports of businesses cutting staff to adopt AI, only to find they spend more on the technology and get less than they were sold.
That caution isn’t only anecdotal. Zitron himself calls today’s AI infrastructure spending “the greatest capital misallocation in history”, a line grounded in OpenAI’s audited financials.
Our read is that Wall Street treated AI like a brand-new discovery, though it’s been around for years. The money invested and the actual output don’t line up, at least not yet.
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Visa’s stablecoin platform and the pressure on banks
The second story came from a watcher.guru headline: Visa launched a platform to provide stablecoin services. The scale is what to watch out for. Visa’s network reaches more than 200 million merchants and settles roughly $15 trillion in payments a year.
A stablecoin is essentially a digital dollar. It’s all electronic and steadier than Bitcoin. But our concern is what this does to banks. Today, all of those Visa transactions run through the traditional banking system. If card networks move that volume onto stablecoins, banks could lose income they rely on.
And if banks weaken, that impacts your savings. Mastercard and American Express are moving the same way, so this isn’t going away.
Why is stablecoin a concern?
The banking backdrop is fractured already. Banks have closed their doors. And in many cases, people’s money has been frozen arbitrarily.
Adding a currency with open questions about safety and stability worries us. If the powers that be go this route, you don’t really get an option. You won’t choose dollars or stablecoin at the register. It’s no different from grocery prices going up: you don’t get a vote; you either pay more or go without.
How do these risks impact your savings?
We named three risks worth watching. Each one is a way a single event could impact your retirement money.
- Concentration risk: With a third of the S&P 500 tied to a handful of AI names, one burst could drag down the broader market where your savings live.
- Banking-system risk: If stablecoins pull volume and income away from banks that don’t adapt, the institutions holding your deposits could come under strain.
- No opt-out: If payment networks and policymakers adopt stablecoins widely, everyday savers have to use the system whether they want to be or not.
How can gold hedge against the AI bubble?
Both stories create the same urgency to protect what you can’t afford to lose. That’s the case Swiss America has made since 1982, and it’s why physical gold keeps coming up.
Physical gold is a tangible asset you can hold in your hand. It carries no counterparty risk, so it doesn’t depend on a bank staying open or a platform staying solvent. It has long served as a safe haven and a store of value, and as a hedge when paper currencies lose ground.
Central banks also use this strategy to protect their wealth. Combined, they bought 863 tonnes in 2025, which is well above the 2010 to 2021 average of 473 tonnes.
Note that physical metal isn’t the same as a paper claim. You own the coin or bar outright, not an entry on someone’s balance sheet.
Bank deposits vs stablecoins vs physical gold
Here is a comparison of the various savings options:
| Feature | Bank deposit | Stablecoin | Physical gold |
| Who controls access | The bank and regulators | The issuer and the network | You, when you hold it |
| Counterparty risk | Yes, tied to the bank | Yes, tied to the issuer | None |
| Short-term volatility | Low | Low, pegged to the dollar | Moderate |
| Backed by | Fractional reserves and FDIC limits | The issuer’s reserves | The metal itself |
How does a Gold IRA fit in a retirement plan?
If most of your savings sits in the market or in the bank, a Gold IRA is one way to add tangible metal to your retirement plan. It holds physical gold in a tax-advantaged account through a qualified custodian, so you can diversify among your retirement assets.
Final thoughts on hedging against the AI bubble
In this episode, we didn’t predict a crash. But both the AI bubble and the shift toward stablecoins put pressure on the same place where you have savings. It’s smart to hedge against the AI bubble by owning physical gold to protect your savings from a shock you can’t control.
To learn more about investing in gold or other precious metals, connect with the Swiss America team today!
Hedge against AI bubble: FAQs
What is the AI bubble?
It’s the danger that AI stocks have climbed faster than their actual earnings justify, and that a burst could spread beyond tech into the broader market. Analyst Ed Zitron compares an OpenAI failure to the 2008 Lehman moment.
Why would an AI bust hurt more than just AI stocks?
Because the market is concentrated. The seven largest tech names make up about 34% to 35% of the S&P 500, so a drop in those stocks can pull down the index where many people hold retirement savings.
What is a stablecoin, and how is it different from Bitcoin?
A stablecoin is a digital dollar that stays pegged to the U.S. dollar, so it doesn’t swing like Bitcoin. We noted that Bitcoin, taken as payment, could be worth much less a day later, while a stablecoin removes that volatility.
Why is Visa’s stablecoin platform a concern?
Visa reaches more than 200 million merchants. If that volume moves off the traditional banking system and onto stablecoins, banks could lose income, and our concern is what that does to the institutions holding your deposits.
Can everyday investors avoid stablecoins?
We don’t think so. If card networks and policymakers adopt them broadly, we expect savers get pulled in without choosing dollars or stablecoin at the register.
How does gold hedge against the AI bubble?
As a hedge against the AI bubble, physical gold carries no counterparty risk and doesn’t depend on a bank or platform staying solvent. It has long acted as a safe haven and a store of value, which is why central banks bought 863 tonnes in 2025.
The information in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered tax or legal advice. Please consult with your own tax professionals before making any decisions or taking action based on this information.
