De-Dollarization And U.S.Debt: The Case For Gold 

De-dollarization is the slow move by other countries to rely less on the U.S. dollar, and it’s picking up speed as America’s debt climbs. I sat down with my co-host Chris on The Secret War on Cash to break down the latest news: Russia and India settling more trade in their own currencies, and a federal deficit that keeps growing. So what does all of this mean for the savings you’ve worked hard to build?

Key takeaways

• De-dollarization is a gradual shift as countries settle more trade outside the dollar.
• Russia and India agreed at their December 2025 summit to grow annual trade toward $100 billion by 2030, much of it settled in their own currencies.
• The federal deficit
• The federal deficit reached about $1.4 trillion in just the first nine months of fiscal year 2026, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
• Chris and I expect the dollar to keep losing ground over the next 3 to 10 years, not overnight.
• The one step you can take now is to diversify part of your savings into tangible assets like physical gold and silver.

We recently discussed this on our podcast:

What is de-dollarization?

De-dollarization is when countries and trading partners reduce how much they lean on the U.S. dollar. That can mean settling trade in other currencies, holding fewer dollars in reserve, or building payment systems that route around the dollar.

The dollar took its role as the world’s reserve currency after World War II. It cemented that role even after the U.S. left the gold standard in 1971. For decades, few countries questioned it.

That started to change after 2022. When the U.S. froze Russia’s dollar reserves following the invasion of Ukraine, other governments took note. They saw that dollars held abroad could be cut off, and some began looking for alternatives.

What is driving de-dollarization right now?

A few forces are pushing this shift, and the newest headlines come from Russia and India. At their December 2025 summit, the two countries set a target to reach $100 billion in annual trade by 2030, up from about $69 billion in the 2024 to 2025 fiscal year. That goal hasn’t been reached yet, but the direction is clear.

Putin said in December 2025 that over 90% of trade between the two countries is now settled in rubles and rupees rather than dollars. It isn’t a clean process, though. Russia has piled up rupee reserves it can’t easily spend, which shows how hard the dollar is to fully replace.

Other pressures are adding up too:

• U.S. sanctions: Freezing Russia’s reserves in 2022 pushed other countries to cut their dollar exposure.
• Trade policy: New rounds of tariffs in 2025 added to the uncertainty around holding dollars.
• Emerging market trade: China, India, and other BRICS members are settling more deals in their own currencies.

Why is the U.S. debt a problem for the dollar?

Chris and I spent the most time discussing America’s own finances. The Congressional Budget Office reported the federal deficit hit about $1.4 trillion in just the first nine months of fiscal year 2026, from October 2025 through June 2026.

That’s roughly $35 billion more than the same stretch a year earlier. Spending was near $5.52 trillion while revenue was around $4.15 trillion.

Putting a trillion in perspective 

A trillion is hard to picture, so we used seconds to make it real:

• A million seconds is about 11.5 days.
• A billion seconds is about 11,500 days, or roughly 31 years.
• A trillion seconds is about 11.5 million days, close to 31,700 years.

That’s the scale of the numbers Washington now works with every year.

Where is the national debt headed?

The CBO projects the full-year deficit will reach about $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of the economy. Federal debt held by the public is near 100% of GDP and could climb to 120% by 2036. Interest on that debt is on track to reach about $1 trillion a year in 2026.

Why isn’t it easy to cut spending?

About 60% of all federal spending goes to mandatory programs. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid together make up roughly half of the government’s total outlays, according to the Peterson Foundation citing CBO data. These programs support millions of retirees and families, so politicians rarely touch them.

That leaves the deficit growing, and a growing deficit weighs on the dollar’s value over time. This is a big part of why it’s wise to prepare for a downturn.

What are the signs the dollar is losing ground?

You can see the change in the data. The dollar made up about 72% of global reserves in 2001. By mid-2025, that share had fallen to roughly 56%, based on IMF figures.

The euro sits near 20%, with the yen, pound, and China’s renminbi splitting much of the rest.

Central banks are also voting with their purchases. The World Gold Council reports they’ve added more than 1,000 tonnes of gold a year since 2022, and its mid-2025 survey found 95% of central bankers expect their gold reserves to keep growing.

The dollar is still part of about 89% of foreign exchange trades, based on the 2025 Bank for International Settlements survey. So it isn’t going anywhere fast. But the trend line points down, which is what we’re watching.

How fast could de-dollarization keep going?

Chris put a rough timeline on it. He expects the dollar to keep losing dominance over the next 3 to 10 years, a slow decline rather than a sudden collapse. History supports that pace. The British pound took decades to hand its reserve role to the dollar.

What could replace the dollar?

No single currency is ready to replace the dollar today. 

The euro has no unified fiscal policy behind it, and China’s renminbi still moves under tight controls. So the more likely path is a gradual loss of share, with gold picking up the slack as a neutral reserve asset. 

That backdrop impacts where the gold price could head in the years ahead.

How can you protect your savings?

So where does this leave you? Chris and I landed on the same answer that the central banks reached which is to diversify with tangible assets. 

Here’s how physical gold and silver stand apart from paper gold like GLD or IAU:

• No counterparty risk: You hold the asset directly, with no fund manager or institution standing between you and it.
• No default risk: It isn’t a claim on anyone else’s promise to pay.
• No government dependency: Gold’s value doesn’t rely on any single country’s policy or currency, and it can’t be frozen by an issuing government.
• Tangible ownership: You can hold it in your hand and access it without needing another party’s cooperation.

If you’re looking at options for how to invest in precious metals, the difference between physical and paper assets matters. 

How much should you allocate to gold?

We recommend keeping 5% to 15% of your savings in precious metals as a hedge, not as your whole plan. If you want a sense of scale, this guide covers how much gold to own for your situation. 

Final thoughts on de-dollarization

De-dollarization is a slow change, but it is happening. America’s rising debt only adds to the pressure on the dollar. 

Allocating part of your savings into physical gold and silver is a solid way to protect what you’ve built. Swiss America has helped clients diversify into tangible assets since 1982.

De-dollarization: FAQs

Is de-dollarization the same as the dollar collapsing at home?

No. De-dollarization is about how other countries use the dollar for trade and reserves, not what happens inside the U.S. You’ll still spend dollars at home, but their buying power can erode over time as the currency weakens abroad.

Will de-dollarization make everyday prices rise for Americans?

It can add pressure over time. As global demand for dollars softens, the currency tends to lose value, which makes imported goods cost more. That’s one reason a hedge against a weaker dollar matters for retirees on a fixed income.

Can I hold physical gold in a retirement account?

Yes. A Gold IRA, or precious metals IRA, lets you hold approved gold and silver inside a tax-advantaged retirement account, stored with an approved custodian on your behalf. An account executive can explain which coins and bars qualify.

Is silver or gold a good option for diversification?

Silver can complement gold in a diversified holding. It’s more affordable per ounce, which makes it easier to buy in smaller amounts. It also tends to swing more in price than gold, so many people hold both.

Does de-dollarization affect the stock market or just the dollar?

It can touch both. A weaker dollar and higher government borrowing costs can ripple into stocks, bonds, and interest rates. Spreading your savings across assets that don’t all move together like physical metals, can steady your overall position.

The information in this post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered tax or legal advice. Please consult with your own tax professionals before making any decisions or taking action based on this information.